Updated: Feb 20, 2020
Dear Clients & Friends,
This week, it’s time for our monthly market risk update. However, before we get into it, I want to mention two things. First, the dip that we bought into in February has recovered 92% of its losses as of the end of last week (using the S&P 500 as a barometer). Once 100% recovered, we will unwind this “dip-trade” and call it a success.
Second, chatter is increasing in regards to the mid-term elections. There is a lot of risk surrounding this round of elections, and much of that risk is related to the possibility of a swing towards the Democratic Party. Many clients have asked for my opinion about the elections, and I assure you that we will be writing about this a great deal in the autumn.
For now, we remain excited to unwind our “dip trade,” which will probably occur around 2880ish on the S&P 500. There have been many economic indicators which have been softening in the past few weeks/months, but that’s nothing new as we’ve been writing about coming weakness for quite some time. Most of the risk-based metrics that we study remain on the positive side of the growth spectrum, although only mildly so. And none of the metrics we are referring to point to an immediate concern. We remain exceedingly diligent in regards to the uncertainty concerning the tariff war, which is a battle the US cannot win. Despite our concerns and the measures that we have taken to mitigate them, we remain very pleased with portfolio performance. So things are good…for now.
That being said, let’s bring in our good friend Brad McMillan for our monthly market risk update…
Recession risk Recessions are strongly associated with market drawdowns. Indeed, 8 of 10 bear markets have occurred during recessions. As I discussed in this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update, right now the conditions that historically have signaled a potential recession are not in place. Yes, some of the data is softening, and trends may be changing. But on an absolute basis, conditions remain good—with healthy job growth, high levels of consumer confidence, and expansionary business confidence. As such, economic factors remain at a green light.
Economic shock risk
There are two major systemic factors—the price of oil and the price of money (better known as interest rates)—that drive the economy and the financial markets, and they have a proven ability to derail them. Both have been causal factors in previous bear markets and warrant close attention.
The price of oil. Typically, oil prices cause disruption when they spike. This is a warning sign of both a recession and a bear market.
A quick price spike like we saw in 2017 (it did not appear to reach a problem level and was short lived) is not necessarily an indicator of trouble. The subsequent decline also took this indicator well out of the trouble zone. Prices have started to rise again and are approaching a level where we should be concerned. Just as in 2017, while the risks from this measure are rising, they are not yet material or immediate. Therefore, the indicator remains at a green light, although we are getting closer to a high risk level.
Signal: Green light
The price of money. I cover interest rates in the economic update, but they warrant a look here as well.
The yield curve spread dropped a bit further in July, taking it to a new post-crisis low. It is still well outside the trouble zone, so the immediate risk remains low. But the fact that the spread is at a new low, in combination with the Fed’s expected rate increases, suggests that this remains something to watch. I am leaving this measure at a green light for now, but you can see a shade of yellow.
Signal: Green light (with a shade of yellow)
Beyond the economy, we can also learn quite a bit by examining the market itself. For our purposes, two things are important:
To recognize what factors signal high riskTo try to determine when those factors signal that risk has become an immediate, rather than theoretical, concern
Risk factor #1: Valuation levels. When it comes to assessing valuations, I find longer-term metrics—particularly the cyclically adjusted Shiller P/E ratio, which looks at average earnings over the past 10 years—to be the most useful in determining overall risk.
The major takeaway from this chart is that valuations remain extremely high. In fact, they are close to the second-highest level of all time, exceeded only by the dot-com boom. Also worth noting, however, is the very limited effect on valuations of the recent increases in earnings due to the tax cuts. On a shorter-term basis, those earnings increases have markedly reduced valuations, suggesting reduced risk. On a longer-term basis, however, as shown in the chart above, valuations have not pulled back much at all. High valuations are associated with higher market risk—and longer-term metrics have more predictive power. So, this is definitely a sign of high risk levels.
Even as the Shiller P/E ratio is a good risk indicator, however, it is a terrible timing indicator. To get a better sense of immediate risk, we look at the 10-month change in valuations. Looking at changes, rather than absolute levels, gives a sense of the immediate risk level, as turning points often coincide with changes in market trends.
Here, you can see that when valuations roll over, with the change dropping below zero over a 10-month or 200-day period, the market itself typically drops shortly thereafter. In recent months, valuations have dropped toward the risk zone, and they have dropped a bit further in the past month. While the long-term trend in valuations remains at a positive level, risks are rising. Therefore, this indicator stays at a yellow light.
Signal: Yellow light
Risk factor #2: Margin debt. Another indicator of potential trouble is margin debt.
Debt levels as a percentage of market capitalization ticked down last month, but they remain close to all-time highs. The overall high levels of debt are concerning; however, as noted above, high risk is not immediate risk.
For immediate risk, changes in margin debt over a longer period are a better indicator than the level of that debt. Consistent with this, if we look at the change over time, spikes in debt levels typically precede a drawdown.
As you can see in the chart above, the annual change in debt as a percentage of market capitalization has ticked down in recent months, and it has remained near zero over the past year. So, this indicator is not signaling immediate risk. But the overall debt level remains very high. As such, the risk level is worth watching. We are keeping this indicator at a yellow light.
Signal: Yellow light
Risk factor #3: Technical factors. A good way to track overall market trends is to review the current level versus recent performance. Two metrics I follow are the 200- and 400-day moving averages. I start to pay attention when a market breaks through its 200-day average, and a break through the 400-day often signals further trouble ahead.
These indicators remain positive, with all three major U.S. indices above both trend lines. The Dow did briefly drop through its 200-day in June. In the past couple of months, we have also seen the S&P 500 bounce off its 200-day on a daily basis several times, which could be a sign of weakness. But looking at monthly signals, as this chart does, there has not been a sustained break. With no convincing movement either way, the risk of the trend turning negative has risen materially. The most probable case is that the markets continue to rise, as they failed to break support even at the nadir. But given the fact that both the Dow and the S&P have hit their support levels—and have not yet convincingly rebounded above—risks of more volatility have increased. So, I am keeping this indicator at yellow.
Signal: Yellow light
Conclusion: Risks rising, conditions may be weakening
After taking the market risk indicator to a yellow light for the first time four months ago, markets have since recovered. This recovery was more or less expected. At the same time, the yellow light rating recognized that risks have risen. Despite the recovery, and the fact that we are once again approaching new highs, those risks are still there.
The overall economic environment remains supportive, and neither of the likely shock factors is necessarily indicating immediate risk. But the continued volatility and the fact that several of the market indicators point to an elevated level of risk—combined with the ongoing policy concerns—suggest that volatility may get worse.
As such, we are keeping the overall market indicator at a yellow light. This is not a sign of immediate trouble. Indeed, the likelihood remains that the market will keep moving higher. Rather, it is a recognition that the risk level has increased materially and that, even as the market recovers, further volatility is quite likely.
In summary of Brad’s update, we remain in growth mode, but as we’ve been disusing for some time, we see the end of this economic cycle down the road. I would refer our readers to our previous letters which outline the time frame relevant to the end of this cycle because it may not be anytime soon, although it might be sooner than we’d like, but maybe not. And when the end comes, will it be a mild slowdown, or something more akin to 2008? These are the questions that plague us. And if the hint isn’t explicit enough, this is what we will be talking about in the coming weeks.
Until then, have a wonderful summer weekend.
Matthew Ramer, AIF® Principal, Financial Advisor MOR Wealth Management, LLC
1801 Market Street, Suite 2435 Philadelphia, PA 19103 P: 267.930-8301 | c: 215-694-4784 | f: 267.284.4847 |
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The majority of this content was written and distributed MOR Wealth Management, all rights reserved. Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a registered investment adviser. Fixed insurance products and services offered through CES Insurance Agency.
Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a registered investment adviser. Fixed insurance products and services offered through CES Insurance Agency. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. As stated above, commentary for the 5 risk factors provided by Brad McMillan and published in the Independent Market Observer. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S and P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.