Dear Clients and Friends,
Given the treacherous ride that the US stock market endured recently, I considered writing a mid-week email. However, since yesterday was already Thursday, I figured that I would just wait for the weekend reading since the message is somewhat anticlimactic.
“Nothing to see here…” is our stance.
As we’ve previously indicated, the longer-term risks of Trump’s tariffs and the possibility of a trade war are actually terrifying to any level-headed economist. However, the economy remains very strong at this moment in time. The risks of a trade war are primarily mid- and long-term in nature, and but mild in their short-term effect on the stock market. We believe that the economy has enough current strength to recall its recent correction, and thus, we retain our forecast of mid-January: a 10-13% correction (which we are currently experiencing) followed by a recovery. We think that yesterday’s volatility is the result of exaggerated fear during an already established short-term correction. This is why our concerns are not elevated.
That said, we still believe that a recession is coming, and we believe that the last market high prior to such a recession will be sometime between October 2018 and October 2019. We further believe that if these tariffs remain in place, the recession will be far deeper than it would have been without any unnecessary obstacles to global trade.
So, everyone remain disciplined, and have a lovely weekend.
Matthew Ramer, AIF® Principal, Financial Advisor MOR Wealth Management, LLC 1801 Market Street, Suite 2435 Philadelphia, PA 19103 P: 267.930-8301 | c: 215-694-4784 | f: 267.284.4847 | 601 21st Street, Suite 300 Vero Beach, FL 32960 P: 772-453-2810
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